Democratic Governor Ned Lamont has established a significant double-digit lead over Republican challenger Ryan Fazio as the Connecticut gubernatorial campaign enters its final stretch, according to a newly released Quinnipiac University poll. Survey results published Wednesday show Lamont capturing 55% support among likely voters, compared to 38% for Fazio, with roughly seven weeks remaining before the Nov. 3 election.
The survey indicates that roughly 5% of likely voters remain undecided about their choice for governor, while 2% declined to state a preference. Analyzing the state of the contest, Doug Schwartz, associate director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, observed that Lamont appears well-positioned to secure a third term in office. Schwartz noted that Fazio is currently contending with a pronounced deficit in name recognition within a predominantly Democratic state.
Following the release of the poll, the Lamont campaign issued a statement asserting that the findings reflect the priorities of Connecticut residents. Lauren Gray, the communications director for Lamont’s campaign, stated that voters are focused on lowering living costs, expanding the state economy, and advancing Connecticut, viewing the governor as having the necessary vision. Gray added that while the survey reinforces feedback received across the state, the campaign is not taking anything for granted.
Meanwhile, the Fazio campaign indicated in response to an inquiry that a formal reaction to the Quinnipiac survey results would be released at a later time.
The Quinnipiac numbers align with other recent polling in the state, though they show a wider margin for the incumbent. In a Sacred Heart University/WFSB/CT Insider survey published earlier in the week, Lamont held a 14-point advantage over Fazio, leading 48% to 34%. That earlier poll showed a tightening race compared to its Aug. 3 edition, which had measured Lamont leading Fazio by 21 points, at 50% to 29%.
A detailed demographic examination of the Quinnipiac data illustrates sharp partisan and demographic divisions across the electorate. Party loyalty remains exceptionally high on both sides: Lamont commands 93% of self-identified Democrats with Fazio drawing 6%, while Fazio captures 86% of Republicans against 10% for Lamont. Among unaffiliated voters, who represent a pivotal voting bloc in the state, Lamont maintains an edge of 48% to 42%.
A substantial gender divide also defines the race. Female likely voters back Lamont by an overwhelming margin of 64% to 30%. In contrast, male voters lean slightly toward the Republican challenger, with 47% supporting Fazio and 44% backing Lamont.
Name recognition and favorability metrics present distinct advantages for the incumbent. Half of likely voters—50%—view Lamont favorably, while 36% hold an unfavorable view, and 11% report that they have not heard enough about him to form an opinion. By comparison, Fazio remains unfamiliar to a large portion of the electorate, with 45% of likely voters stating they have not heard enough about him. Among those who did offer an assessment, 28% view Fazio favorably and 25% unfavorably.
On the question of executive performance, Lamont retains a net positive standing, with 50% of likely voters approving of how he handles his duties as governor, compared to 42% who disapprove. General sentiment regarding the overall condition of the state is also slightly positive, with 52% of likely voters expressing satisfaction with how things are going in Connecticut—comprising 8% who are very satisfied and 44% who are somewhat satisfied. Conversely, 47% expressed dissatisfaction, including 25% who are somewhat dissatisfied and 22% who are very dissatisfied.
Despite Lamont's lead, the survey identified widespread economic unease among the electorate. A majority of likely voters, 52%, reported that they are financially worse off than they were a year ago, compared to 28% who said they are better off and 18% who reported no change in their financial situation.
Perceptions of the broader state economy lean negative as well. Only 45% of respondents described Connecticut’s current economic condition as either excellent (2%) or good (43%), while 53% characterized it as not so good (34%) or poor (19%). When asked about the trajectory of the state economy, 53% believed it is remaining about the same, 39% thought it is deteriorating, and just 6% believed it is improving.
Voters also assigned responsibility for local economic conditions to both state and national leadership. Half of likely voters, 50%, stated that Lamont bears more responsibility for the state of Connecticut's economy, while 41% assigned greater responsibility to President Donald Trump.
When likely voters were asked to pick the single most crucial issue determining their gubernatorial vote from a list of nine topics, kitchen-table economic matters dominated. The cost of living ranked highest at 27%, followed closely by the economy at 23%. Taxes registered as the top priority for 11% of voters, immigration was selected by 10%, and healthcare stood at 8%, with no other issue surpassing the 6% threshold.
Lamont demonstrated commanding leads among voters prioritizing the most widely cited concerns. Among those who identified the cost of living as their primary issue, Lamont led Fazio 63% to 29%, and he held a 58% to 33% advantage among voters prioritizing the economy. Lamont also dominated the healthcare cohort, leading 83% to 15%.
Conversely, Fazio held substantial leads among voters focused on specific conservative issues, outpacing Lamont 72% to 22% among those most concerned with taxes, and leading 63% to 36% among those prioritizing immigration. However, Schwartz highlighted the challenge Fazio faces in converting those strengths into a broader victory, noting the steep uphill climb required to blunt Lamont’s dominance on the economy and overcome the governor's institutional advantages.
The survey also measured public assessments of candidate leadership and character. A strong majority of likely voters, 63%, affirmed that Lamont possesses good leadership skills, compared to 32% who disagreed and 5% who had no opinion. For Fazio, 31% viewed him as having good leadership skills, 26% disagreed, and 43% offered no opinion. Additionally, voters indicated by a 53% to 42% margin that Lamont cares about their needs.
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